9409225 Siverson Do the domestic political processes and institutions of states influence their choice of foreign policies? The answer to this question is almost certainly in the affirmative, but balance of power accounts of international politics have emphasized the effects of the structure of international power on the strategies pursued by states and have deemphasized the effects of domestic variables. Some extreme accounts have even gone so far as to deny entirely the relevance of domestic political factors in accounting for, to take one example, international war. Yet clear cut evidence indicates that democracies have not fought each other in a serious war, a fact that is clearly not in accord with balance of power theories. Contrary to structural theories, this research begins with the hypothesis that domestic politics do in fact have an important effect on the foreign policy of a state. The main element of this can be substantiated by showing that political leaders are held accountable for their failures in foreign policy. Of course, considerable evidence tells us that United States presidents benefit or suffer politically because of the success or failure, respectively, of their policies, but evidence for such an effect in other political systems is either fragmentary or anecdotal. To address this question, the researchers will identify all state political leaders in the twentieth century and collect data on the extent to which their state participated in international crises during their tenure, what the outcome of the crisis was, and what the costs of the crisis were. The investigators will also collect data on the basic characteristics of the political system, recording for example, whether there was a legislative body that served as a check on the executive, how competitive elections (if any) were, how the leader came to power and how long they had been in power. The application of several powerful statistical methods will enable the r esearchers to assess the extent to which political leaders are held accountable for their foreign policy actions across time, societies and political systems. Evidence of such accountability, particularly in non-democratic systems, will not only inform the theoretical investigation of international politics, but can provide important evidence to United States policy makers about the possible constraints under which the leaders of other states operate. The researchers also hope to be able to shed light on the likely expansion of the "democratic peace".
