9411643 Miller This project continues and extends the investigator's earlier survey of research in three former republics of the Soviet Union. The stated goal of many post-Soviet leaders is the democratization of their countries. Thus, the process of democratization as well as the development of effective state structures is the theoretical focus of this investigation. In addressing this task, the investigators look first to structural and then to instrumental theories of democratization in an effort to understand the likelihood that post-Communist systems will be successful in dealing with the myriad challenges to democratization they currently face. The structural theorists, with their concentration on such prerequisites for democracy as socio-economic development and supportive mass values are helpful in pointing up the importance of societal factors in contributing to or constraining the development of democracy, but these theories tend to be lacking in the provision of an adequate evidentiary base. The instrumentalist studies, while highlighting the importance of struggles between competing elites in determining the ultimate structure of politics, are for the most part based upon case studies and therefore lacking generalizable outcomes. The current project integrates the structural and instrumentalist approaches by offering a new theoretical and analytical focus and by providing new empirical evidence drawn from their earlier cross-national and longitudinal studies of societies currently in the process of transition. The investigators will augment the two approaches by incorporating an analysis of factors necessary for the establishment of strong governmental institutions - - recognizing that a successful transition to democracy requires the concurrent establishment of democratic procedures together with effective government. Two factors in particular have limited effective state development - - the salience of competing national identities within these societies and the relative lack of legitimacy enjoyed by the institutions of authority. Tapping into citizen orientations becomes especially critical when citizens come to base their political participation in their ethnic identity, and when ethnic groups are separated by feelings of distrust, suspicion, and resentment. The researchers will study whether the devolution of political power to ethno-regional territories and the promotion of preferential treatment programs serves to decrease ethnic-based conflict and enhance the possibilities for stable democracy. In addition, the researchers argue that the degree of citizen support for political leaders, institutions, and both political and economic reform is critical during times of transition. By interviewing citizens the study will provide an assessment from the perspective of the citizen as to how effectively the government is meeting the needs of the people. The study will allow for a direct linkage between the orientations of the decision-makers and the constituencies they are meant to serve.
