The severity of environmental and economic problems in Eastern Europe following the fall of communism in 1989 provides a useful laboratory for examining the relationship between perceptions of environmental risks and economic opportunities. Environmental activism appeared to be a driving force behind economic and political change in Eastern Europe, yet in the mid-1990s environmentalism appeared to have lost considerable political momentum, suggesting that the relationships among environmentalism, economic factors, and political change are more complex than previously thought. This study proposes that the relationship between risk perception and environmental policy is influenced by perceptions of the nature of the environmental problem(s) and economic factors, and by the political and policy context. These influences on risk perception and environmental policy in both developed and transitional societies are poorly understood. In this study, a detailed survey of risk perceptions in a heavily stressed region of Bulgaria -- the Burgas area, which has suffered considerable environmental damage from the Neftochim petrochemical plant, as well as from heavy pesticide and fertilizer use in the area -- will be used to test a model in which perceptions of riskiness and intentions to act to reduce a risk are the result of two attributes of the risk: (1) perceptions of exposure to the risk, and (2) perceptions of costs and benefits to individuals and to society from the hazard; these attributes are moderated by (a) knowledge and beliefs about the hazard underlying the risk (i.e., mental models), (b) beliefs about the ability of individuals or of groups or organizations to reduce or increase the risk, and (c) uncertainty about the risk. Bulgaria is a prime example of countries in which the tradeoffs between the economy and the environment are highly salient. And while specifics of attitudes are likely to differ from, for example, those found in the U.S., the general structure of risk attitudes has been found to be similar to that in other countries. As illustrated by the scope of current U.S. and international environmental aid to Eastern Europe, the global community does not want developing countries to neglect the environment in their pursuit of economic growth. This project will contribute to our ability to accomplish this. In short, this project will investigate the interplay of environmental concerns, economic factors, and attitudes about politics and legal protections in order to improve our understanding of citizens' concerns, and to enhance our ability to balance environmental considerations with other objectives. S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n ( ++++++++++++ 8 Û ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ + _ Ûª? ÑOh ª' +'ª?0 à + Õ $ H l + ¢ ? D h + R:WWUSERTEMPLATENORMAL.DOT
