The proposed work will produce estimates of gross domestic product for one region of the British North American colonies at benchmark dates in the 18th century. Conjectural estimating methods are applied to the economy of the Lower South region, an area composed of the present day states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. This study of that region is a pilot project to show more conclusively that these methods can be successfully applied to the colonial period, and to improve the procedures used in the estimation. If successful , these improved techniques will be applied to the other major colonial regions: New England, the Middle colonies, and the Chesapeake. With those estimates for all four regions the authors would then combine them to obtain estimates for the colonies as a whole which could be linked to the GDP series for the early 19th century. GDP figures for the Lower South will be constructed using the conjectural method of estimation. In this pilot project, conjectures about colonial economic growth are refined and extended. The conjectures will draw on the rich and extensive literature on wealth and standards of living in the colonies of the Lower South that has accumulated over the past several decades, and will make use of the probate samples and other data sets that have been compiled as well. An annotated bibliography of probate samples and a database containing the data on variables pertinent to estimating GDP for the region is also prepared. The estimates take into account the economic activity of Native Americans. Whether one thinks that Native Americans should be treated as though they were part of the colonial economy or as a separate nation (or nations) and trading partner, their economic activity and its impact on the colonists should be taken into account. Native Americans were simply too important quantitatively to be ignored, especially so in the earlier part of the 18th century. The study includes establishing more clearly and firmly the size and location of the Indian tribes in the Lower South, the nature and extent of their economic interaction with the colonists, and making estimates of their production in such a way that their activity can be combined with that of the colonists or kept separate as though the Indians were another trading nation. By offering comprehensive estimates on the economy of British America, creating a database to facilitate inquiries by other scholars, and incorporating Indian economic activity in the conjectures, this project will integrate the various efforts of scholars who have provided analyses of this export oriented region.
