Projecting cancer incidence and mortality rates, and relating those projections to the attainment of national cancer control objectives, are the goals of this intramural research project. The project includes development and continued refinement of a computer model which projects cancer incidence and mortality, meshing together data from a variety of sources, and adapting quantitative cancer control objectives to fit the modeling framework. The NCI staff has developed and written a large interactive mainframe computer program used to project cancer figures for a forty year period. The model incorporates different models for survival from cancer, includes data for a number of cancer sites, the ability to examine temporal trends in underlying cancer incidence and mortality from other causes, adjustment of rates to different populations, and production of annual projections of cancer incidence and mortality. The crux of the model is the flexibility to analyze the effect of cancer prevention, screening, and treatment activities (in any combination) on cancer mortality. A similar program which runs on an IBM desktop computer is being developed which incorporates additional features related to cost of cancer. Work in the current year has involved revision and updating of the desktop computer version with a new iterface and extensive use of help screens.
