Projecting cancer incidence and mortality rates, and relating those projections to the attainment of national cancer control objectives, are th goals of this intramural research project. The project includes development and continued refinement of a computer model which projects cancer incidence and mortality, meshing together data from a variety of sources, and adapting quantitative cancer control objectives to fit the modeling framework. An interactive FORTRAN program that projects cancer mortality and incidence figures (numbers and rates) for forty years serves as a focus for several projects within the Division. The program incorporates two different survival models (Weibull and mixed exponential), over 40 can- cer sites, the ability to begin with or without prevalent cases, temporal trends in underlying cancer incidence and in mortality from other causes, three possible types of intervention (primary prevention, screening, and treatment), age adjustment, calculation of annual incidence and mortality statistics, and comparison of these statistics under changing conditions of trends and interventions. Dr. Levin works closely with the Surveillance Program and other DCPC staff. The original FORTRAN version has been converted to work on the NIH's mainframe Convex computer. A revised Windows/PC version has been developed. This program is being prepared for distribution and will include extensive help screens.
