Bio-defense, communicable disease control, and surveillance of emerging infections are essential functions? of public health. Infectious disease threats to public health encompass deliberate attacks, novel organisms,? novel variants of old pathogens, antimicrobial-resistant strains, and new susceptible human populations.? However, even familiar microorganisms are still major causes of morbidity and mortality. Strategies to better? guide public health policy- and decision-making, particularly in situations of high uncertainty and high risk,? are urgently needed.? To address this problem, this project brings together four disciplines: public health, mathematical modeling of? infectious diseases, computer simulation of complex systems, and cognitive psychology. The overall goal is? create an integrated data and simulation environment for public health decision support adapted to the? factors that drive public health decision-making. Three lines of research will proceed in parallel during the? first half of the project. One line comprises the investigation of decision-making processes of public health? epidemiologists and policy-makers using methods drawn from the discipline of cognitive psychology. Another? line of research will entail the development of a detailed simulation of an urban population modeled after the? Salt Lake Valley. A unique contribution of this specific part of the study is the evaluation of the impact of? incorporating novel sources of data regarding demographics, activity levels, and health status into the? establishment of the synthetic population. A third line of research will be to evaluate the conceptualization? and interpretation of mathematical models of infectious disease by public health epidemiologists and policymakers.? These research lines will then come together in four significant ways. First, the computer? simulations will provide a more precise instrument to probe the factors that influence decision-making.? Second, the information obtained from the analysis of decision-making processes will in turn inform the? design of the prototype simulation test bed. Third, the simulations will facilitate investigation of transmission? model acceptability for public health personnel. Fourth, a prototype simulation test bed will be deployed? interactively in which the public health epidemiologist and policy-maker will be able to visualize multiple? course of action and their effects, when confronted with a simulated outbreak.?
