The Roybal Center for Health Policy Sinnulation develops better models to understand the consequences of biomedical developments and social forces for health, health spending, and health care delivery. It builds on a large body of research at RAND, including a multi-year effort to identify and forecast the consequences of health status trends and medical breakthroughs over the next 30 years. Center pilots have led to more than $10 million in additional funding, numerous scientific articles directed to the health policy community, and wide dissemination of the models and findings via the internet and briefings to policymakers and researchers. The ultimate goal of the Center is to translate this existing work - as well as other, aging-related research at RAND - into policy tools that result in better health investments. The proposed renewal will support a Management Core and Pilot Core to predict the consequences of new technologies and treatments for health care spending (both public and private), health status, and longevity. Each pilot project will meet one of four objectives: (1) Research the basic determinants of costs and health status among the elderly and near elderly;(2) Develop simulation models to predict costs, health, functional status, and longevity;(3) Apply these models to assess the value of interventions or treatments;and (4) Disseminate the tools to decision makers in industry and the government. The proposed renewal would focus initially on four areas. First, we will model the consequences of Alzheimer's disease and dementia for society, and to identify the consequences of the most promising potential interventions. Second, we will build additional modules to understand the consequences for less prevalent but important diseases, starting with chronic kidney disease. Third, we will partner with the VA to pilot a simulation tool to prevent falls among the elderly. Fourth, we will modify our existing model to incorporate Medicare Part D.

Public Health Relevance

The Roybal Center for Health Policy Simulation develops and applies models and simulation tools for translational research on aging. These models and tools advance our understanding of the influence of demographic, technological, clinical, and social trends on the health status and health expenditures of older Americans.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Aging (NIA)
Type
Center Core Grants (P30)
Project #
2P30AG024968-06
Application #
7729501
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZAG1-ZIJ-3 (M2))
Program Officer
Baker, Colin S
Project Start
2004-09-30
Project End
2009-10-28
Budget Start
2009-09-30
Budget End
2009-10-28
Support Year
6
Fiscal Year
2009
Total Cost
$77,832
Indirect Cost
Name
Rand Corporation
Department
Type
DUNS #
006914071
City
Santa Monica
State
CA
Country
United States
Zip Code
90401
Goldman, Dana P; Fillit, Howard; Neumann, Peter (2018) Accelerating Alzheimer's disease drug innovations from the research pipeline to patients. Alzheimers Dement 14:833-836
Van Nuys, Karen E; Xie, Zhiwen; Tysinger, Bryan et al. (2018) Innovation in Heart Failure Treatment: Life Expectancy, Disability, and Health Disparities. JACC Heart Fail 6:401-409
García, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J; Ziff, Anna L (2018) Gender Differences in the Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program. Eur Econ Rev 109:9-22
Gaudette, Étienne; Pauley, Gwyn C; Zissimopoulos, Julie M (2018) Lifetime Consequences of Early-Life and Midlife Access to Health Insurance: A Review. Med Care Res Rev 75:655-720
Chen, Cynthia; Zissimopoulos, Julie M (2018) Racial and ethnic differences in trends in dementia prevalence and risk factors in the United States. Alzheimers Dement (N Y) 4:510-520
Trish, Erin; Xu, Jianhui; Joyce, Geoffrey (2018) Growing Number Of Unsubsidized Part D Beneficiaries With Catastrophic Spending Suggests Need For An Out-Of-Pocket Cap. Health Aff (Millwood) 37:1048-1056
Chen, Alice J; Goldman, Dana P (2018) Productivity Benefits of Medical Care: Evidence from US-Based Randomized Clinical Trials. Value Health 21:905-910
Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar; Tysinger, Bryan; Goldman, Dana P et al. (2017) Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico). BMJ Open 7:e017330
St Clair, Patricia; Gaudette, Étienne; Zhao, Henu et al. (2017) Using Self-reports or Claims to Assess Disease Prevalence: It's Complicated. Med Care 55:782-788
Cheng, Wei-Han; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P (2017) PCSK9 Inhibitors Show Value for Patients and the US Health Care System. Value Health 20:1270-1278

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