The proposed approach builds upon methods of decision analysis used elsewhere in other contexts, to develop a model of risk related decision making that will describe the alcohol related behavior of adolescents. This work will entail: 1) developing a set of behaviors which differ in fundamental risk characteristics and eliciting from 200 subjects a rating of each behavior on each of the risk characteristics, 2) using the methods of expressed preferences to elicit the perceived costs, benefits, and propensity to indulge in the various forms of behavior - specific attention will be devoted to examining how the elicited results differ when alcohol use is included as part of the considered behavior, 3) using factor analysis to describe the relationship between the considered behaviors and various risk characteristics which have been shown in past research to be related to risk perceptions, 4) applying regression analysis to develop predictor equations of risk related behavior on the basis of these underlying factors, 5) using the profile of factors of judgement analysis method to classify these predictor equations in order to isolate groups of subjects with similar risk related profiles, and 6) applying factor analysis to describe the relationship between subject demographic factors and risk profiles. Completion of each step in the proposed research will provide information useful in developing an understanding of the alcohol related behavior of adolescents. The last two steps, however, will provide the most substantial insight into how to modify undesirable forms of behavior, by allowing future attention to be focused on problem groups of subjects and the underlying reasons for their risk related perceptions and behavioral propensities.
