This is a 3 year proposal to follow-up a group of subjects who were last interviewed in 1982 as part of the St. Louis ECA study. The purpose of the follow-up is to identify new cases of alcohol problems and disorder. All subjects proposed for follow-up had no lifetime DSM-Ill alcohol abuse or dependence at either the baseline or one year follow up interview. The sample included the following: all subjects aged 18-49 at baseline and who participated in the one year follow up interview, without DSM-III alcohol disorder but who reported any alcohol problems or heavy drinking; all subjects who scored at the mean or above on a multivariate determined risk scale for alcohol problems or disorder; all who reported a family history of drinking problems; and a 25% random sample of those not otherwise selected. The proposed sample numbers 867, of whom 38% are male, 44% nonwhite and 37% have a history of heavy or problem drinking.
Specific aims i nclude: estimating 11 year cumulative incidence of alcohol problems and disorder; identifying predictors of onset of problems and disorder; determining whether predictors are the same regardless of diagnostic classification system used to define alcohol disorder; identifying factors associated with invulnerability, and exceptional vulnerability, to developing alcohol problems or disorder; studying the temporal order of occurrence of alcohol problems and disorder in conjunction with occurrence of other behaviors or psychiatric disorder. Identification of predictors of and inhibitors of alcohol problems and disorder may be used to design preventive programs.
