Few longitudinal studies exist that evaluate changes in predictors of prevent program effects in individuals with different growth trajectories over multiple risk periods, or that systematically address risk factors, program effects, program mediators and effects of different program components in the same study. In addition, no preventive intervention study, to our knowledge, has attempted to evaluate potential cross- generation effects from targeted individuals to their later offspring. The specific objectives of this longitudinal etiology and prevention study are to evaluate: (1) long-term effects of an early community-based prevention program for adolescents on reducing drug abuse and related problem behaviors and increasing participation in prevention and health promotion activities in adulthood; (2) changes in mediators and moderators of early drug use risk, particularly mediators targeted by the earlier community program; (3) changes in the strength and pattern of personal, social, and environmental drug abuse predictors as individuals move through four potential risk periods (early adolescence, adolescence, onset and end of early adulthood); and (4) effects of the earlier program on the oldest child of these adults. Two panels of adults will be tracked through the end of early adulthood, included school, parent, community organization, health polity change, and mas media program components, beginning in middle school. Two additional waves of survey and archival data on two panels of individuals form Kansas City and Indianapolis (78% white, 20% African American, 2% Other; 51% female, 64% low SES; N=2544) will be collected. Merged with up to nine previously collective waves of data, this proposed study will include subjects spanning the ages 12-31 and the index (oldest) children of the approximately 1/3 of the subjects who do not have children ages 3 or older. Hierarchical regression, latent growth curve, growth mixture model, and structural equation analyses will be compared for their ability to predict drug abuse development and program effects with models that include personal, social, and environmental influences. Effects of different program components will be evaluated (school, parent, mediated, community organization, policy change), as well as effects of the program as a whole on six hypothesized trajectories of drug use (abstainers, early stable users, experimenters, late stable users, quitters, and erratic users). The proposed study is important because it encompasses four potential periods of drug use risk from ages 12-31, includes multiple waves of data on two diverse population, is large enough to enable test replication across sites and population sub-groups, incorporates and compares sophisticated analytical techniques to evaluate models of drug use and program effects, and represents the most long-term study of drug abuse prevention program effects in the U.S. Results should inform at least four important questions relevant to drug abuse prevention: (1) whether a drug prevention program originally aimed at early adolescents has the capacity to affect drug abuse, problem behaviors, and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood; (2) whether patterns of risk factors changes over different periods of early adolescence to the end of early adulthood; (3) whether long-term prevention effects achieved thus far on adults extend to prevention practices with their children; and (4) whether the original prevention program has affected or has the capacity to affect risk and protective factors in the children of these adults.
