This proposal is a request for continued funding of research on demographic models of nuptiality, fertility and mortality and methods of estimation of basic demographic parameters, primarily from inaccurate and incomplete data. The focus of this research has been to improve our ability to measure demographic processes. In this proposal for continued funding, we move our research one step further -- to attempt to measure the covariates of fertility, mortality and nuptiality by using statistical models for analyzing failure time data. We intend to work both on development of methods and on their application in illustrative analyses. The results should have significance for policies and programs in that they may enable field investigators to concentrate attention on those few variables likely to be associated with significant demographic events and change. The methods developed here should be applicable to a wide range of data from many sources. Our principal concentration will be on the analysis of mortality and fertility, including birth intervals.
