This research will develop a new mathematical model for the analysis of marital fertility. Fertility, a measure of the number of live births per women, will be derived by expanding a model of fecundability (the probability that a woman will conceive per unit time) and will explicitly incorporate age-specific variation in its behavioral and physiological components. The fundamental significance of this research is that any factor that affects female fecundity (and ultimately fertility) must do so through one of the components of this model. Thus the model provides a firm theoretical foundation for a variety of applications in fertility analysis and reproductive biology. Three sources of data will be used to develop and test the model. Contemporary Western populations, for which both detailed demographic and physiological data are available, will provide the basis for development and sensitivity testing. To illustrate the broader applicability of the model, we will also use data from a tribal New Guinea population known to have characteristics very different from those found in Western populations. Finally, the model will be applied to historical data from German villages of the 18th and 19th Centuries. The integrated approach to reproductive research involved in this work brings together expertise in demography, reproductive physiology, and mathematical modeling.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
1R01HD020989-01
Application #
3319544
Study Section
Social Sciences and Population Study Section (SSP)
Project Start
1986-09-01
Project End
1987-08-31
Budget Start
1986-09-01
Budget End
1987-08-31
Support Year
1
Fiscal Year
1986
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
Department
Type
Schools of Arts and Sciences
DUNS #
791277940
City
Ann Arbor
State
MI
Country
United States
Zip Code
48109
Wood, J W; Holman, D J; Yashin, A I et al. (1994) A multistate model of fecundability and sterility. Demography 31:403-26
Weinstein, M; Stark, M (1994) Behavioral and biological determinants of fecundability. Ann N Y Acad Sci 709:128-44
Weinstein, M; Wood, J; Greenfield, D D (1993) How does variation in fetal loss affect the distribution of waiting times to conception? Soc Biol 40:106-30
Galdikas, B M; Wood, J W (1990) Birth spacing patterns in humans and apes. Am J Phys Anthropol 83:185-91
Johnson, P L; Wood, J W; Weinstein, M (1990) Female fecundity in highland Papua New Guinea. Soc Biol 37:26-43
Wood, J W (1989) Fecundity and natural fertility in humans. Oxf Rev Reprod Biol 11:61-109
Johnson, P L; Wood, J W; Campbell, K L et al. (1987) Long ovarian cycles in women of highland New Guinea. Hum Biol 59:837-45