This is a proposal for continuing support of research into the interrelation of birth rates and economic factors in determining labor market earnings opportunities of men and women. While a variety of unique factors affect individual opportunities and realizations, patterns of average wages are primarily determined by human capital as reflected by education and work experience. The qualitative dimensions of the wage structure - higher wages associated increased schooling and job experience - are stable but quantitative differentials respond to the changing demography of the labor force. Rising labor force participation of women and changing fertility patterns have generated large swings in workforce demography. Our earlier work stressed the way that wages of men respond to changing workforce demography reflected by changes in the age and schooling distributions of working men. There are clear and predictable responses, but they can be identified only when interrelations with other economic factors, business cycles and shifts in industrial activity are unraveled. While changes in the 1960s and 1970s are adequately described by workforce demography, changes in the 1980s are primarily responses to other economic factors. The proposed work extends the analysis of responses to workforce demography to include women. One issue is whether rising participation of women depressed wages on traditional female jobs and whether recent increases in wages of women are partially a response to recent cohorts switching to non- traditional jobs. In addition, there are questions of the way fertility interruptions to participation profiles affect the accumulation of job skills. A primary question concerns effects of rising participation of women on wages of men and effects of changes in the demography of working men on wages of women. In addition to clarifying linkages between workforce demography and wages, the primary objective is to investigate the underpinnings of the role of international trade, longer run trends in industrial production, and trends within industries that favor higher levels of skill.
