This study has two broad objectives. The first is to compare with cross- national data the level of government support for children relative to the elderly among high income nations with aging populations. Differences in public programs for children and the elderly in the U.S. have been the subject of much political and scholarly debate. Yet, systematic comparative evidence on the experience of economically and demographically similar nations is lacking. A comparative overview of patterns of public spending in European nations may identify cross- national divergence in public support of children and the elderly, and provide a framework from which the particular experience in the U.S. can be understood. The second objective is to examine the impact of demographic and political structures on age-based public policies in high income democracies. A thesis to be tested in the study is that under certain institutional conditions, governments increase rather than decrease transfers to the young in response to population aging. The goal is to identify through multivariate analysis the societal conditions that promote generational solidarity in public policy rather than generational or age competition. Using comparative data, then, the study will examine how national political contexts shape the impact of demographic, political, and social change on age-based public policies. The results can be used to address theoretical debates over the sources of changes in the status of the young and old in the U.S. To reach these general objectives, the project will gather annual time series data for 18 advanced industrial democracies on direct and indirect (i.e., tax expenditure) transfer spending and entitlements for a variety of programs aimed primarily at the young and old. The two most important age-based programs - pensions and family allowances - are to be measured in most detail, but benefits in the form of tax allowances, educational support, and social assistance will be examined as well. Further data on national demographic, social, economic, and political characteristics are to be gathered. With the detailed measures, the project will describe the trends in relative spending levels for the young and old in more detail than currently exists. It will also analyze the structural determinants of age-based spending by modelling context-specific political effects across nations in the impact of demographic and political change.
| Pampel, F C (1996) Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: a contingent relationship. Demography 33:341-55 |
