The goal of this research is to improve understanding of the determinants and consequences of the high school dropout decision and the determinants and consequences of school completion via General Education Development (GED) certification. Econometric methods will be developed and applied to several large-scale longitudinal data sets to determine dynamic patterns of schooling and employment choices, and the interrelationships among these choices. The project will exploit the wealth of information available from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID), the NLS matched parent-child samples, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), and the National Educational Longitudinal Survey (NELS) data, as well as other sources that have not been widely used for these purposes. Both reduced form and structural dynamic models will be estimated with an eye toward understanding the determinants and consequences of exam certification. Previous research on schooling that focuses on explaining years of schooling completed or specific educational transitions will be extend. Dynamic models of schooling attainment that will explain age-by-age decisions to attend school will be estimated. School drop out and re-entry decisions, including the decision to take the GED, will be investigated. The types of schooling considered will be broaden to analyze non-academic post-secondary schooling alternatives. The roles of opportunity wages, family resources, family environment factors, and community college tuition costs in explaining the dynamics of schooling attainment and exam certification for all major demographic groups will be assessed.
| Carneiro, Pedro; Heckman, James J; Vytlacil, Edward (2010) Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin. Econometrica 78:377-394 |
| Heckman, J J; Vytlacil, E J (1999) Local instrumental variables and latent variable models for identifying and bounding treatment effects. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 96:4730-4 |
