The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy has transformed the health of HIV-endemic populations in South Africa, with unprecedented gains in life expectancy (Bor et al. 2013) and significant reductions in HIV incidence (Tanser et al. 2013). To achieve the full potential benefits of ART scale-up, further evidence is needed on the pathways (behavioral vs. biological) through which ART coverage reduces incidence, and the reasons why so many people with HIV continue to die when life-saving ART is available. We will establish this evidence base through analysis of demographic and health surveillance data from rural KwaZulu-Natal. This research will inform interventions to maximize the impact of South Africa's ART program.

Public Health Relevance

: In two recent papers published in Science, we have demonstrated that public sector scale-up of ART in rural South Africa led to (i) large increases in adult life expectancy and (ii) significant declines in HIV infection risk, both measured at the population level (Bor et al. 2013; Tanser et al. 2013). And yet: HIV incidence and mortality rates remain unacceptably high in this HIV-endemic setting. To inform future implementation of ART programs, including under treatment-as-prevention scenarios, further evidence is needed in two areas: first, the mechanisms through which ART scale-up reduces HIV incidence - the 'pathways to prevention' - and in particular, the role of behavioral vs. biological pathways in determining community level incidence rates; and second, the reasons why people are still dying from HIV in the era of free and widely available ART. Information in these areas will inform wrap-around behavioral prevention interventions to augment treatment as prevention strategies and will shape efforts to improve outcomes across the cascade of HIV care and treatment. Evidence in these two areas will be critical to reducing the large lingering burden of HIV disease in South Africa. To establish this critical evidence base, we will analyze longitudinal health and demographic surveillance data collected by the Africa Centre for a complete population cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal. These data include population-based HIV biomarker collection, data on sexual behaviors and ART knowledge and attitudes, and verbal autopsies to determine causes of all deaths in the population. Further, clinical records from the national ART program have been linked into the surveillance by national ID, enabling us to observe individuals as they progress through the complete cascade of HIV care, from HIV infection to recovery on ART, or death. Through epidemiological analysis, we will: determine the pathways through which high ART coverage reduces HIV incidence at the population level; and establish the determinants of HIV mortality in age of widespread ART availability. The study team is led by South Africa PI Frank Tanser, University of KwaZulu- Natal, and US PI Till Barnighausen, Harvard School of Public Health, and will support several mentored post- doctoral opportunities at the Africa Centre.

National Institute of Health (NIH)
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
Research Project (R01)
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AIDS Clinical Studies and Epidemiology Study Section (ACE)
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Bures, Regina M
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Kwazulu-Natal Research Institute Tb-HIV
South Africa
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McGovern, Mark E; Canning, David; Bärnighausen, Till (2018) Accounting for non-response bias using participation incentives and survey design: An application using gift vouchers. Econ Lett 171:239-244
Bor, Jacob; Chiu, Calvin; Ahmed, Shahira et al. (2018) Failure to initiate HIV treatment in patients with high CD4 counts: evidence from demographic surveillance in rural South Africa. Trop Med Int Health 23:206-220
Yapa, H Manisha; Bärnighausen, Till (2018) Implementation science in resource-poor countries and communities. Implement Sci 13:154
Harling, Guy; Gumede, Dumile; Shahmanesh, Maryam et al. (2018) Sources of social support and sexual behaviour advice for young adults in rural South Africa. BMJ Glob Health 3:e000955
Ortblad, Katrina F; Musoke, Daniel K; Ngabirano, Thomson et al. (2018) Female Sex Workers Often Incorrectly Interpret HIV Self-Test Results in Uganda. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 79:e42-e45
Brennan, Alana T; Bor, Jacob; Davies, Mary-Ann et al. (2018) Medication Side Effects and Retention in HIV Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Tenofovir Implementation in South Africa and Zambia. Am J Epidemiol 187:1990-2001
Geldsetzer, Pascal; Fink, Günther; Vaikath, Maria et al. (2018) Sampling for Patient Exit Interviews: Assessment of Methods Using Mathematical Derivation and Computer Simulations. Health Serv Res 53:256-272
Vandormael, Alain; Bärnighausen, Till; Herbeck, Joshua et al. (2018) Longitudinal Trends in the Prevalence of Detectable HIV Viremia: Population-Based Evidence From Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Clin Infect Dis 66:1254-1260
Haber, Noah; Harling, Guy; Cohen, Jessica et al. (2018) List randomization for eliciting HIV status and sexual behaviors in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a randomized experiment using known true values for validation. BMC Med Res Methodol 18:46
Ortblad, Katrina F; Chanda, Michael M; Musoke, Daniel Kibuuka et al. (2018) Acceptability of HIV self-testing to support pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in Uganda and Zambia: results from two randomized controlled trials. BMC Infect Dis 18:503

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