This project aims to test the validity of seven models for indirect assessment of mental health need in a state's subareas. Two are """"""""vertical"""""""" and """"""""horizontal"""""""" synthetic estimation, which require individually-linked socio-demographic data on subarea individuals for making need estimates. Five are """"""""social indicator"""""""" models that use only area characteristics for making estimates--linear regression equations, regression equations with interaction terms, and prevalence-variability model, a flat-rate model using social-indicator adjustments, and a three-rate model using social indicators as categorizing criteria. All seven models will be implemented, using 1980 census data and other locally obtained indicators, across 40 urban, suburban, and rural subareas of Colorado, and will be tested against directly surveyed need in the same subareas. The surveys will assess the mental health needs of 100 individuals in each of the 40 acreas in two ways: (1) using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule to obtain rates for diagnosable disorders, and (2) using multi-dimensional assessments of psychosocial and community functioning. A third scale assessing general well-being or depression will be added to ensure comparability of findings with national mental health survey samples. The need survey data will be partially comparable to data being collected in """"""""Epidemio-logical Catchment Areas"""""""", providing opportunities for cross-validation of this project's findings at various ECA project sites. Using surveyed-need variables as validating criteria, the seven indirect needs-assessment models will be compared in terms of their ability to predict pattern of need across subareas, mean level of subarea need, and variability range of subarea need. The models will also be compared in terms of size of errors of prediction for different types of subareas, such as urban or rural. Another primary aim is to translate these findings into manuals and procedures that will allow any state to inexpensively apply one or more of these indirect needs-assessment methods to its own subareas, for purposes of planning services and allocating funds.
