The proposed research examines the impact of goals on inference.
The aim i s twofold: a) to demonstrate that goals may bias inferential processes such as prediction, generalization, covariation assessment, evidence evaluation, explanation, self- perception, and causal reasoning, and b) to identify the mechanisms underlying these biases. It is hypothesized that goals affect inference by directing the memory search among the wide array of potentially relevant knowledge structures, and leading to the activation and use of those knowledge structures most likely to promote one's goals. Thus goals may determine the choice among procedural knowledge structures, that is, inferential rules, and among declarative knowledge structures, that is, information about the world, other people, and the self. The research will show such goal-directed memory search by demonstrating that people with different goals respond to similar evidence by using different inferential rules, activating different self-conceptions, and constructing different theories about the causal determinants of events. Thus, for example, when people are confronted with evidence that clashes with their goals, they may evaluate it using only those inferential rules likely to discredit it, search their memories for other evidence that supports alternative conclusions, and draw upon their general knowledge about the world to construct theories enhancing the extent to which the alternative evidence is predictive of the outcomes in question. The research addresses some of the implications of biased inference to health directly, by showing that people are likely to discredit evidence indicating that their behaviors or attributes may be related to poor health.
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