We propose a set of preliminary studies that will demonstrate the feasibility and importance of an international study of fertility variation in low fertility countries. In the proposed preliminary studies will investigate the reasons for fertility variation in the U.S. and in selected European countries. We will estimate cross-national and cross- temporal variation in a) the career cost of fertility, b) the direct costs of children, and c) income adequacy/stability. Next, we will compare variation in these factors across groups and with variation in national and sub-national fertility rates. We will determine whether these factors can explain the contemporary cross-national variation and the sharp drop in fertility rates over the past decade or so in several European countries. To accomplish these aims, we use panel data for the United States, Germany, and Sweden and, for a broader set of European countries, we will examine data from the Family and Fertility Surveys (FFS). While these studies are important in their own right, we view them as preliminary studies for an R01 proposal. Additional proposed work includes examination of other data that might be included in the larger study and contacts with potential collaborators that would widen and enrich the planned R01 project.
| Morgan, S Philip (2003) Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis? Demography 40:589-603 |
