Understanding variation in low fertility is among the most important topics in contemporary demography. Some of the lowest contemporary fertility rates are in developed countries with """"""""strong family systems"""""""" (e.g., Italy, Spain, Japan). A key question is the """"""""post-transition level"""""""" of fertility in many countries now nearing the end of their fertility transition. Iran experienced a dramatic fertility increase after the Iranian 1979 Revolution, but fertility has declined to low levels in the past two decades with fertility now slightly over replacement level for the country as a whole. But some regions have a 2000 TFR of approximately 1.6. We propose to use new data to explore fertility motivations in this low fertility, Muslim country. We develop hypotheses that suggest that low fertility is likely and alternative ones consistent with more modest (replacement) levels of fertility. ? ?

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
Type
Small Research Grants (R03)
Project #
1R03HD046484-01
Application #
6756737
Study Section
Pediatrics Subcommittee (CHHD)
Program Officer
Bachrach, Christine
Project Start
2004-09-16
Project End
2006-08-31
Budget Start
2004-09-16
Budget End
2005-08-31
Support Year
1
Fiscal Year
2004
Total Cost
$77,000
Indirect Cost
Name
Duke University
Department
Social Sciences
Type
Schools of Arts and Sciences
DUNS #
044387793
City
Durham
State
NC
Country
United States
Zip Code
27705
Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal; Morgan, S Philip; Hossein-Chavoshi, Meimanat et al. (2009) Family Change and Continuity in Iran: Birth Control Use Before First Pregnancy. J Marriage Fam 71:1309-1324
Morgan, S Philip; Zhigang, Guo; Hayford, Sarah R (2009) China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects. Popul Dev Rev 35:605-629