The Risk and Risk Factor Model is an established computerized simulation model that projects the consequences over time of changes in baseline risk factors, such as smoking, blood pressure, and diabetes. Based on data from the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study (NHEFS), the model projects all-cause mortality and hospitalization for the NHANES I cohort of adults, which is representative of the U.S. adult population in 1971-75. The proposed project will augment the model in two ways to make it suitable for projecting outcomes in a contemporary cohort of older adults. (1) We will extract data from the NHANES III for adults 45-74 and adapt the model so that it can project mortality and hospitalization for this cohort. Fielded in 1988-94, the NHANES III is the most recent NHANES and better represents the current prevalence of risk factors in U.S. adults. (2) We will address the problems that prevented the inclusion of nursing home admissions in the current Risk and Risk Factor Model and add this outcome to those projected by the model. The augmented model will be capable of exploring the consequences over time for mortality, hospitalization, and nursing home admissions of changes in such risk factors as smoking habit, obesity, blood pressure, and chronic disease. Its projections can be used to examine the impact on middle-aged and older adults of important public health programs and goals, such as the Healthy People 2010 targets. The report for this project will present some illustrative projections.
