The pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently on-going with massive numbers of cases and high morbidity and mortality. The disease is caused by a novel coronavirus which is now named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Effective control strategies for COVID-19 rely on a deep understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, policy making in the management of the pandemic is significantly impacted by the interaction between the outbreak development and the economic growth, and there is currently a paucity of research examining such interaction. The overall objective of this proposal is to establish a new mathematical and computational modeling framework to investigate the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the US based on available data, and to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health and the economy. To achieve this objective, the team will pursue two specific aims: (1) Modeling the spread and health impact of COVID-19; (2) Modeling the economic impact of COVID-19. The proposed research is significant because it is expected to advance the current understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, to provide realistic prediction on the development and long-term evolution of the disease outbreak, and to quantify the interaction between epidemiological and economic factors under the impact of COVID-19, all of which are important for the control and management of the pandemic. The approach is innovative in the development of a sophisticated mathematical and computational framework that incorporates both the epidemic and economic aspects of COVID-19, and in the integration of rigorous mathematical modeling and analysis, intensive numerical simulation, and realistic epidemic data. The project represents an interdisciplinary collaboration among an applied and computational mathematician with long-term interest in infectious disease modeling (Wang), an epidemiologist and health scientist with extensive working experiences at CDC (Heath), a business and management professor with a background in public heath (Mullen), and a data analyst and geographic information system expert (Mix). The success of this project will not only build a solid knowledge base for the complex transmission dynamics of COVID-19, but also provide important guidelines for the government and the public health administration in pandemic management and policy development.
The proposed project is relevant to public health because a deep understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its economic impact will help inform COVID-19 pandemic management and improve the current practice in disease prevention and intervention. The mathematical and computational models developed in this project will improve such understanding and make new knowledge discovery. This research effort aligns with part of NIH's mission to reduce public health burdens of infectious diseases.
