The proposed study will analyze longitudinal panel data from mid-childhood to late adolescence to identify modifiable risk factors for alcohol use and abuse. The proposal seeks two years of support to complete these analyses using eight waves of data from 808 youth from the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP) panel. SSDP is a theory-driven developmental epidemiology study of childhood and adolescent risk and protective factors for substance abuse and related health and behavior problems. The gender- balanced, multiethnic urban panel, constituted in 1985 when subjects entered the fifth grade in 18 elementary schools, has been tracked and interviewed through 1993 when subjects were aged 18. Included in the data are measures of community, family, school peer, and individual risk and protective factors and measures of substance use and abuse, and delinquent, violent, and criminal behavior. The development of alcohol use and abuse will be examined using a combination of traditional and new analytic techniques including; regression and logistic regression analysis, growth curve analysis, survival analysis, structural equation modeling, dynamic classification,a nd latent transition analysis. State-of-the-art methods for the treatment of missing data will be employed. This study will provide an unusual opportunity to examine the modifiable risk and protective factors for alcohol use longitudinally, and provide important developmental information for preventive intervention strategies.
