The problem of HIV infection in adolescence continues to grow despite public health prevention efforts. Large-scale nomothetic prevention programs targeted at providing information regarding HIV risk have been unsuccessful, suggesting the necessity of individualized programs. Although developing such programs is limited by financial and resource costs, feasibility could be dramatically increased if interventions could be targeted at adolescents most likely to engage in HIV-risk behaviors, prior to their actual engagement in these behaviors. Drawing from experimental assessment techniques, we have developed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task as a possible prospective predictor of risky behavior that may be used independently or in combination with current self-report measures examining developmental/personality risk-related constructs associated with HIV-risk behaviors (e.g., self-esteem, parental influence, sensation seeking). Before immediately proceeding ahead to using the BART as a prospective tool for identification in a large-scale longitudinal study, the purpose of the current application is to more thoroughly examine the applicability of the BART for identifying already occurring risk behaviors with middle adolescents. Specifically, we propose to examine 120 9th and 10th grade adolescents to examine self-reported real-world risk behaviors as predicted by the BART and self-report measures of risk-related constructs such as self-esteem and sensation seeking. Based on previous work with older adolescents, we expect that riskiness on the BART will predict the presence of already occurring HIV-risk behaviors, above and beyond that provided with self-report measures and demographic variables. As an extension of existing research, we also will examine riskiness as a function of race and gender, while considering the role of third variables such as socioeconomic status. We believe this research can set the stage for future studies aiming to predict the occurrence of HIV-risk behaviors, prior to their occurrence, which may lead to more effective, individualized HIV-prevention programs.
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