The overall goal of the proposed study is to examine, build, and test a predictive model that defines the relationships between climate change, land use and cover change, social systems, and ecological disturbance on the ecological distribution of tsetse flies and African Trypanosomiasis or sleeping sickness across Kenya. This study responds to the announcement by specifically employing an interdisciplinary team to develop and deploy an innovative advanced spatial simulation system, """"""""ATcast,"""""""" that integrates dynamic multi-scale, multi-agent models, geographical and epidemiological methods, and a regional climate model. The information produced will directly affect on-going tsetse control programs and make a substantial contribution to understanding broader patterns of human-environment impacts, ecologically related changes, disease emergence, transmission, prevention and control, and future risk. The proposed study will enhance the scientific understanding of human impacts on ecological systems, how these changes influence the potential for disease emergence and transmission, and what models can be generated using new and existing climate, landscape, social, and organismal data to predict, or associate, disease epidemiology with ecological processes at multiple spatial, social, and biophysical scales of organization. African Trypanosomiasis or sleeping sickness is a major threat to human health in Africa. We will examine, build, and test a predictive model that defines the relationships between climate change, land use and cover change, social systems, and disturbance on the distribution of tsetse flies and sleeping sickness across Kenya. This study will enhance the scientific understanding of climate change and human impacts on ecological systems, and how these changes influence disease ecology.
