The goal of this research is to determine how proposed reforms to Social Security would affect the well-being of low-income elderly households. The project will develop a methodology for stimulating the impact of Social Security reform proposals on a representative sample of the U.S. population. The simulations will rely on survey data that have been linked to lifetime earnings histories from the Social Security Administration. Using the lifetime earnings data, it is possible to simulate the entire path of Social Security taxes and benefits for each household in the sample under a wide range of proposed Social Security reforms. These tax and benefit paths can be used to calculate household rates of return as well as gains and losses relative to other households in the cohort. In addition, it will be possible to investigate which types of families benefit the most and which benefit the least from each Social Security reform proposal. This project will provide detailed quantitative evidence on the amount of income redistribution and poverty alleviation achieved by the existing Social Security, SSI, and Medicare programs, and on how demographic trends and changes in earnings patterns will alter the impact of these programs in the future. These estimates based on current policy will them be compare with the simulate results associated with potential Social Security reforms.
