The primary objective of this project is to develop an integrated statistical approach to modeling, estimation and prediction of the therapeutic benefit and population impact of prostate cancer surveillance. The approach we propose allows us to estimate contributions of different effects ofsurveillance on diagnosis and survival of patients with prostate cancer and population processes. These effects are the curative effect of surveillance, lead time effect and over-diagnosis. We will evaluate the effect of heterogeneity and associated over-optimistic selection bias on the observedprostate cancer incidence and mortality. Quantitative interpretation for the observed incidence and mortality trends in prostate cancer will be provided. Predictions of the impact of intensifiedsurveillance and changes in population heterogeneity on prostate cancer incidence, mortality, andthe time natural history of the disease will be made. The approach will be applied to data onprostate cancer from the Utah Population Database, the Utah Cancer Registry, public data from theSEER program, and clinical data from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Simulations using mechanistic models of prostate cancer and screening will be used to validate our models.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01CA097414-05
Application #
6950421
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRRB-D (M1))
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2002-08-15
Project End
2006-07-31
Budget Start
2005-08-01
Budget End
2006-07-31
Support Year
5
Fiscal Year
2005
Total Cost
$129,365
Indirect Cost
Name
University of California Davis
Department
Public Health & Prev Medicine
Type
Schools of Medicine
DUNS #
047120084
City
Davis
State
CA
Country
United States
Zip Code
95618
Wang, Shufang; Tsodikov, Alex (2010) A Self-consistency Approach to Multinomial Logit Model with Random Effects. J Stat Plan Inference 140:1939-1947
deVere White, Ralph W; Tsodikov, Alexander; Stapp, Eschelle C et al. (2010) Effects of a high dose, aglycone-rich soy extract on prostate-specific antigen and serum isoflavone concentrations in men with localized prostate cancer. Nutr Cancer 62:1036-43
Chefo, Solomon; Tsodikov, Alex (2009) Stage-specific cancer incidence: an artificially mixed multinomial logit model. Stat Med 28:2054-76
Draisma, Gerrit; Etzioni, Ruth; Tsodikov, Alex et al. (2009) Lead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context. J Natl Cancer Inst 101:374-83
Laxman, Bharathi; Morris, David S; Yu, Jianjun et al. (2008) A first-generation multiplex biomarker analysis of urine for the early detection of prostate cancer. Cancer Res 68:645-9
Tsodikov, Alex; Chefo, Solomon (2008) Generalized Self-Consistency: Multinomial logit model and Poisson likelihood. J Stat Plan Inference 138:23802397
Tsodikov, A; Garibotti, G (2007) Profile information matrix for nonlinear transformation models. Lifetime Data Anal 13:139-59
Tsodikov, A; Szabo, A; Wegelin, J (2006) A population model of prostate cancer incidence. Stat Med 25:2846-66
Broet, Philippe; Tsodikov, Alexander; De Rycke, Yann et al. (2004) Two-sample statistics for testing the equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives: an application to the analysis of a breast cancer clinical trial. Lifetime Data Anal 10:103-20