? ? Under the auspices of our currently funded CISNET grant we have been developing models based on ideas of multistage carcinogenesis for prediction of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. In this renewal CISNET application we propose to use these models to predict lung cancer risk in the US under diverse smoking scenarios. We will also develop user-friendly software to implement our models. This software will be made freely available to interested scientists. Our models can explicitly accommodate detailed smoking histories on individuals including age at initiation, number of cigarettes smoked per day, changes in levels of smoking, and age at quitting if an ex-smoker. Moreover the models can be used to predict risks both in individuals and populations. Thus the models can be used to predict both individual and population risks under various intervention scenarios for smoking cessation. Since the models are based on the biological paradigm of initiation, promotion and progression in carcinogenesis, they can be used to generate biological hypotheses regarding the mechanism of tobacco induced lung cancer and to explore the extent to which projected risks depend on specific mechanistic aspects of smoking-induced lung cancer. We propose to explore collaboration with other investigators supported by CISNET, particularly those interested in using our model as the 'natural history' component of screening models. ? ?

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01CA097415-07
Application #
7476504
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRRB-K (M1))
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2002-09-10
Project End
2010-07-31
Budget Start
2008-08-01
Budget End
2009-07-31
Support Year
7
Fiscal Year
2008
Total Cost
$219,994
Indirect Cost
Name
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Department
Type
DUNS #
078200995
City
Seattle
State
WA
Country
United States
Zip Code
98109
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Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Holford, Theodore R; Levy, David T et al. (2012) Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000. J Natl Cancer Inst 104:541-8
Hazelton, William D; Jeon, Jihyoun; Meza, Rafael et al. (2012) Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S99-S116
Hazelton, William D; Goodman, Gary; Rom, William N et al. (2012) Longitudinal multistage model for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and CT detected indolent and aggressive cancers. Math Biosci 240:20-34
Jeon, Jihyoun; Meza, Rafael; Krapcho, Martin et al. (2012) Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S51-68
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McCarthy, William J; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun et al. (2012) Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S69-84
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Hazelton, William D; Clements, Mark S; Moolgavkar, Suresh H (2005) Multistage carcinogenesis and lung cancer mortality in three cohorts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 14:1171-81