? ? The proposed study is a continuation of a project to develop a comprehensive model of population trends in lung cancer. The model delivers estimates of the impact of cancer control interventions on observed trends in incidence and/or mortality; plausible ranges of estimates for the extent to which recommended interventions are having their expected population impact; the potential impact of new interventions on future national lung cancer trends; and the impact of targeted cancer control interventions on population outcome. ? ? The current project model is an adaptation of the Micro-simulation Screening ANalysis (MISCAN) simulation model that includes the Moolgavkar model on multistage carcinogenesis. The Moolgavkar model links exposure to risk factors to risk of lung cancer over time. The proposed project will extend our modeling effort to include explicitly the step from smoking-related interventions to expected level of exposure lo tobacco smoke. With this extension and after finishing the model development and validation, the project will perform evaluations across the full spectrum of possible interventions, including behavioral risk factors related to smoking and diet, early detection strategies, and various treatment modalities. Relative to existing efforts in the CISNET program, the proposed project will emphasize comprehensiveness of evaluated interventions and population trends; integration of different modeling approaches; and developing meaningful comparisons among models. ? ?
