Because over 85% of lung cancer is caused by smoking, we focus on the effect of tobacco policies on lung cancer. We will extend a previously developed macro-simulation model, known as SimSmoke, to predict smoking-attributable lung cancer the effect of tobacco control policies on those deaths. The first major aim of this project is extending SimSrnoke to estimate and predict smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths. The model will be programmed to estimate the number of smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths to smoker and non smokers during the past ten years and predict deaths over the next 35 years, and to distinguish the number of deaths by age, gender and by racial/ethnic group, and distinguish the effects of quantity smoked and smoking prevalence. We will also distinguish the effect on lung cancer of factors other than smoking, other such as other risks and the effects of treatment. We also propose to determine the impact of tobacco control interventions on observed trends in mortality; and to determine if the interventions are having their expected population impact. Specifically, SimSmoke will be used to estimate the number of smoking-attributable deaths in the United States averted as a result of policies implemented in the last ten years, and estimate the number of smoking deaths that have been averted as a result of policies implemented in the last ten years in three states with proactive tobacco control policy. We will also consider the potential impact of policies in the future. In examining the effect of tobacco control policies, we will distinguish their effects on smoker and non-smoker deaths, their effects by age, gender, and racial/ethnic group, and their effects in terms of quantity reduction and smoking cessation. We will also add a new module to examine the effect of new tobacco products (low tar and cigarettes without certain additives) and non-tobacco products (inhalers) which may reduce lung cancer risk, and a module to consider how improved lung cancer detection and treatment may reduce smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths, and how they might be coordinated with tobacco control policies. A final goal of this project will be to critically examine the methods that are traditionally used to project lung cancer deaths, and determine how the estimates depend on the sensitivity to key parameters.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01CA097450-03
Application #
6793738
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRRB-D (M1))
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2002-08-26
Project End
2006-07-31
Budget Start
2004-08-01
Budget End
2005-07-31
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
2004
Total Cost
$207,029
Indirect Cost
Name
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation
Department
Type
DUNS #
021883350
City
Beltsville
State
MD
Country
United States
Zip Code
20705
Levy, David T; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying et al. (2018) Seven years of progress in tobacco control: an evaluation of the effect of nations meeting the highest level MPOWER measures between 2007 and 2014. Tob Control 27:50-57
Levy, David T; Borland, Ron; Lindblom, Eric N et al. (2018) Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes. Tob Control 27:18-25
Levy, David T; Tam, Jamie; Kuo, Charlene et al. (2018) The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard. J Public Health Manag Pract 24:448-457
Levy, David T; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying et al. (2018) The Relationship of E-Cigarette Use to Cigarette Quit Attempts and Cessation: Insights From a Large, Nationally Representative U.S. Survey. Nicotine Tob Res 20:931-939
Levy, David T; Mays, Darren; Yuan, Zhe et al. (2017) Public health benefits from pictorial health warnings on US cigarette packs: a SimSmoke simulation. Tob Control 26:649-655
Levy, David; Abrams, David B; Levy, Jeffrey et al. (2016) Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel. Isr J Health Policy Res 5:41
Levy, David T; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian et al. (2016) Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke. Am J Prev Med 50:535-542
Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Levy, David T (2016) Disparities in Maternal Child and Health Outcomes Attributable to Prenatal Tobacco Use. Matern Child Health J 20:701-9
Levy, David T; Fouad, Heba; Levy, Jeffrey et al. (2016) Application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to four Eastern Mediterranean countries. Tob Control 25:413-21
Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S et al. (2016) The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model. Cancer Causes Control 27:615-25

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