Preparing for and responding to novel and re-emerging infectious diseases requires a range of mathematical models to: (a) understand and prevent the initial steps leading to emergence of a new disease from a purely zoonotic risk to human-to-human spread; (b) evaluate key parameters of the disease, including its reproduction number, serial interval, time course of infectiousness, etc. in the early phases of an outbreak; and (c) plan in advance for control measures, using models to compare the course of the epidemic (and its distribution) across various policies. In this grant, we will (a) develop models of control policies to minimize the spread of an infectious disease during the first cycles of transmission within humans, possibly before full human-to-human transmission is established; (b) develop tools for use in real time to estimate the reproductive number, effectiveness of control measures, and timing of infectiousness from the limited data available early in an outbreak; and (c) develop mathematical modeling tools that capture the key features of realistic disease transmission networks in models of intermediate complexity - less complex than full, individual-based simulation models but more complex than the simple differential equation models that fail to capture population structure. The goal of this work is to design tools that will aid in understanding and generalizing the output of computationally complex models of disease transmission. ? ?

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01GM076497-02
Application #
7169251
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZGM1-CBCB-2 (MI))
Program Officer
Anderson, James J
Project Start
2006-02-01
Project End
2011-01-31
Budget Start
2007-02-01
Budget End
2008-01-31
Support Year
2
Fiscal Year
2007
Total Cost
$447,300
Indirect Cost
Name
Harvard University
Department
Public Health & Prev Medicine
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
149617367
City
Boston
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02115
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