Using case-control data from cohorts of women treated for Hodgkin Disease (HD) with radiation and chemotherapy, and coupling this information with data from NCI's Surveillance and End Results (SEER) Program, we developed and published a model for projecting absolute breast cancer risk that described the effects of the treatments given. Some women have risks comparable to carrying a mutation in a BRCA gene following treatment, especially those with high dose radiation and no ovarian ablative chemotherapy.We developed and submitted for publication a relative risk model for projecting breast cancer risk that includes mammographic density, weight, family history, age at first live birth and number of previous breast biopsies. The model has modestly higher discriminatory power than the """"""""Gail model"""""""" that does not include mammographic density. We coupled this model with data on the distribution of risk factors in the general population and with age-specific breast cancer rates from NCIs Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program to develop a model for absolute invasive breast cancer risk based on the factors above.We published a model for predicting absolute melanoma risk, based on factors readily determined by a general practioner.We developed relative and absolute risk models for proximal and distal colon cancer risk and for rectal cancer. A publication is in preparation.In collaboration with staff in DCCPS, we used data from the ATBC Trial to check the calibration of a published model for projecting absolute lung cancer risk that was developed from data in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET). The CARET model had modest age-specific discriminatory accuracy and slightly underestimated the rates of lung cancer in the ATBC data.
| Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M (2014) Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data. Lifetime Data Anal 20:252-75 |
| Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H (2011) Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models. Biometrics 67:1057-65 |
| Gail, Mitchell H; Graubard, Barry; Williamson, David F et al. (2009) Comments on 'Choice of time scale and its effect on significance of predictors in longitudinal studies' by Michael J. Pencina, Martin G. Larson and Ralph B. D'Agostino, Statistics in Medicine 2007; 26:1343-1359. Stat Med 28:1315-7 |
| Gail, Mitchell H (2008) Discriminatory accuracy from single-nucleotide polymorphisms in models to predict breast cancer risk. J Natl Cancer Inst 100:1037-41 |
