Abstract

The goal of this project is to develop and apply improved statistical methods for human fertility studies. Work has progressed in the development of statistical models that (1) distinguish covariate effects on the average level of fertility from effects on the duration of the fertile window, and (2) characterize heterogeneity among menstrual cycles and women with respect to surrogates of fertility. We have applied the first approach to assess declines with male and female age in the level and duration of fertility in the menstrual cycle. We have also used the approach to assess relationships between cervical mucus characteristics and fertility. In the second area, we developed a Bayesian model that incorporates prior information in estimating patterns of cervical mucus secretions in the menstrual cycle. This model was used to demonstrate consistency across cycles from a women in the trajectory of cervical mucus secretions on different days in the fertile interval.

  Funding Agency

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)
Type
Intramural Research (Z01)
Project #
1Z01ES040011-03
Application #
6672887
Study Section
(BB)
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
Budget End
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
2002
Total Cost
Indirect Cost

  Institution

Name
U.S. National Inst of Environ Hlth Scis
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
State
Country
United States
Zip Code

  Publications

Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B; Giacchi, Elena (2007) Bayesian selection of optimal rules for timing intercourse to conceive by using calendar and mucus. Fertil Steril 88:915-24
Stanford, Joseph B; Dunson, David B (2007) Effects of sexual intercourse patterns in time to pregnancy studies. Am J Epidemiol 165:1088-95
Bigelow, Jamie L; Dunson, David B (2007) Bayesian adaptive regression splines for hierarchical data. Biometrics 63:724-32
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B (2007) Bayesian methods for searching for optimal rules for timing intercourse to achieve pregnancy. Stat Med 26:1920-36
Stanford, Joseph B; Dunson, David B (2006) Foreword. Expanding Methodologies for Capturing Day-Specific Probabilities of Conception. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 20 Suppl 1:1-2
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B; Colombo, Bernardo (2006) Cervical mucus secretions on the day of intercourse: an accurate marker of highly fertile days. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 125:72-8
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B (2006) Bayesian selection of predictors of conception probabilities across the menstrual cycle. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 20 Suppl 1:30-7
Dunson, David B; Bigelow, Jamie L; Colombo, Bernardo (2005) Reduced fertilization rates in older men when cervical mucus is suboptimal. Obstet Gynecol 105:788-93
Dunson, David B; Stanford, Joseph B (2005) Bayesian inferences on predictors of conception probabilities. Biometrics 61:126-33
Longnecker, Matthew P (2005) Invited Commentary: Why DDT matters now. Am J Epidemiol 162:726-8

Showing the most recent 10 out of 25 publications