The impact of global climate change will be manifest at the local scale and thus quantification of risks, vulnerability, opportunities and identification of appropriate adaptation measures require spatially disaggregated descriptions of the climate system derived using downscaling tools. Variability and change in near-surface wind speeds have particular importance for climate change impacts on society via their impact on, for example, the feasibility of harnessing renewable energy resources and risks to critical infrastructure. Using products from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project and state-of-the-art global climate model simulations, Professors Sara Pryor from the Atmospheric Science Program at Indiana University and Justin Schoof from the Geography Department at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale will identify and quantify sources of wind climate variability on time scales from months to decades, and generate uniquely detailed projections of wind climates across the contiguous US under global climate change scenarios using both dynamical and empirical downscaling tools. This research will contribute to improved understanding of spatio-temporal variability in wind speeds, dynamic causes of variability in wind climates, mechanisms responsible for extreme wind speeds, and evaluation of the latest generation of Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. Given the key importance of proper assessment of sources of uncertainty and sensitivity in climate change projections, the relative sensitivity of wind climate projections (defined as spread in projections developed from different scenarios) to key sources of uncertainty will also be developed.
The project is motivated by the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in key economic sectors including renewable energy and critical infrastructure. For example, changing wind climates may have implications for the national goal of obtaining 20% of US electricity supply from wind turbines by 2030. The project will generate better understanding of natural/internal variability of regional wind climates and possible influences of global climate change on regional wind climates and operation of existing wind power plants (to 2035) and quantification of possible longer-term shifts in wind climates, including extreme conditions, over the entire 21st century.
