This project will address three acute research needs identified by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report: understanding the relationship between climatic variability and human adaptation; examining the "more detailed local-level analyses of the role of multiple interacting factors, including development activities and climate risk-reduction in the African context"; and regional studies "focusing on future options and pathways for adaptation." The research objective is to better understand adaptation to climate change as a coupled human/biophysical process, taking seriously both qualitative understandings of local livelihoods and adaptation informed by cutting-edge social theory. This project's research methods will include the development of regional climate models for southern Africa. Once these climate models have been tested and verified, the research team will then compile a database of meteorological and economic data so that the PIs can match their climate scenarios with years in the past that have a similar weather profile (drought, floods, etc). The results from these modeling efforts will then be presented to local farming communities to gauge changes that they might undertake given the climate scenarios and the ways in which they have previously adapted to climatic and economic variability. The outcome of these iterative, mixed methods will be an understanding of adaptation and its biophysical impacts will provide greatly refined data to inform regional and sub-regional scenario and modeling efforts integral to future adaptation and development planning.
This project represents a novel approach to studying a complex scientific problem: the impacts of climate change on vulnerable human populations. Where many see quantitative efforts to understand and model climate change and its biophysical impacts and qualitative studies of livelihoods change and adaptation to these impacts as incommensurable, the proposed research will link social-theoretically informed, qualitatively-based research on livelihoods and adaptation to modeled biophysical processes via quantifiable measures of adaptation allowing for both attention to local particularity and the generalization of research findings to inform broader scientific understandings and policy development. With respect to broader societal impacts, the investigators expect this project to contribute to three main areas, namely, the strengthening of National Adaptation Programme of Action in the three countries, the offering of short courses at the partnering African universities, and the hands on training of U.S. and African Ph.D. students through close contact during field research trips.
Addressing human adaptation to coupled climate-economic change is one of the most pressing science needs. Few regions appear as vulnerable to such change as southern Malawi. Over-dependence on one staple crop (maize) combined with recent destabilizing economic change has greatly stressed the livelihoods of people throughout the sub-region. When combined with impending and realized climate change, southern Malawi is arguably as vulnerable to climate change as parts of the Sahel. The purpose of this study is to advance our understanding of human adaptation to climate change in southern Malawi. Our interdisciplinary approach combines regional climate model simulation and analysis, conducted at The University of Texas at Austin, with household surveys to extract information about how successful adaptation may proceed in the area, conducted at West Virginia University. Our specific objectives are to assess how the climate over southern Malawi is likely to change in the future under global warming and to address what periods in the historical climate record provide analogous conditions to those expected for the future. Both regional climate model and coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model projections indicate that southern Malawi is highly likely to become drier and warmer in the future. By mid-century annual rainfall is projected to decrease by 1 mm/day, and by 1 – 2 mm/day by late century. The drying is associated with a decrease in the number of rainy days during the austral summer. The number of heavy rainfall days, defined as when the daily rainfall amount exceeds the 95th percentile threshold for rainy days, is also projected to decrease by 10 – 20%, but the average intensity of heavy rainfall events is projected to remain the same as present day conditions. Surface air-temperatures are also projected to increase by 2.2 K at mid-century and 4.1 K by late-century. Interpretation of these projections indicates that the mid-century climate conditions over southern Malawi will likely be comparable to the 25-year drought event of 1991/1992, the strongest drought conditions experienced over southern Malawi in the past 30 years, the 2001 famine that was associated with flooding early in the year, and the February 1997 floods. The broader impact of this pilot study is that it provides a better understanding about how the climate of southern Africa, and in particular Malawi, is likely to change over the next century. The model projections produced are useful for current and future impacts analysis efforts over Malawi and continental Africa. Improving our confidence in the predictions helps narrow the uncertainty associated with climate change, allowing for improved adaptation planning at national to local scales. Basic decisions regarding technological designs of infrastructure (e.g., building, bridges, and homes) can better take into account for the changing climate, so as to mitigate the impact of climate change in advance and reducing the cost later in the century. Improvements in current adaptation strategies amongst households and communities in Malawi and their relationship to climate and economic changes will improve the quality of life for the people of this region by better preparing them for the consequences of climate change, hence lowering the mortality rate associated with climate change. The project also provided research opportunities for the next generation of scientists/engineers at the University of Texas at Austin, including those from underrepresented groups in science.
