KUPFER, J.A., CAIRNS, D.M., and ALLEN, T.R. The study examines pattern and process of the deciduous-coniferous ecotone (DCE) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It is predicated on the assertion that changes in ecotone location or form can be used to detect the effects of climate change on plant communities because, at ecotones, many species are essentially at the limits of their ranges. Thus, small changes in climate should lead to a comparatively quick and readily noticeable change in vegetation structure or composition. The research strategy has three components: (1) analysis of remotely-sensed data on vegetation type and condition; (2) field-based observations of forest composition; and (3) modeling of carbon cycles below, at, and above the DCE. Results of this research will provide insight into the nature and dynamics of ecotones as well as being important to understanding potential changes in ecosystems brought about by climate-change scenarios.
