Cost estimates for sustainable or "green" facilities in the public sector are presently developed just as those for traditional facilities would be, except a premium is often added to account for "sustainability costs". A scaleable, agent-based model (ABM) at the facility project-level will be developed and tested under the hypothesis that it will be able to more accurately predict the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of a green facility at the earliest stages of concept development. The agent-based model will allow definition of both the social and engineering systems that characterize a facilities lifecycle. The project includes several partner public agencies with significant facility portfolios that wish to use policy measures (including additional investment) to increase both project sustainability and overall sustainability of their capital project portfolios in ways that make economic sense. The outcomes of this research are intended to further the goals of sustainability in public sector capital projects by providing a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between investment and outcomes. The project will impact research and undergraduate education at both Virginia Tech and Lafayette College, an undergraduate institution. In addition, the project will (a) target the recruitment of graduate and undergraduate students from underrepresented groups to participate in this project; (b) create a sustainability game and kit underpinned by ABM for use in secondary math and science courses as well as at the undergraduate level.
Over the last decade, interest in building more sustainable, or "green", buildings has increased. Historically in the public sector, cost estimates for green buildings have been developed in the same manner as those for traditional facilities, except with a premium added to account for "sustainability costs" due to uncertainty about innovative technologies and processes and lack of previous projects to serve as a baseline. Initial cost estimation occurs during the earliest design phase, when funding allocation is sought but very little is known about the actual building design. This premium creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that results in green buildings costing more, which reinforces the perception in the construction industry that green construction is not cost competitive. This research explored whether an approach called "agent-based modeling" could improve the way such costs are estimated, which ultimately could lead to a more accurate estimate and eliminate the need for a "green premium". Agent-based modeling allows us to account for the high degree of systems integration and the interactions among stakeholders in green projects. This research has improved our ability to define the relationship between investment in first cost of capital projects and the resulting Total Cost of Ownership of those projects, particularly for green or sustainable projects that exhibit high degrees of integration among incorporated systems to achieve sustainability goals without a cost premium. By making better predictions of the Total Cost of Ownership of green projects at the concept development phases of a capital project, public agencies will be better able to allocate resources to green projects in a way that does not automatically program in a cost premium and create a self-fulfilling prophecy that green projects must cost more than conventional projects. Ultimately, the outcomes of this research will further the goals of sustainability in public sector capital projects by providing a more realistic and accurate picture of the relationships between investment and outcomes, and generating the knowledge that is needed to direct limited resources where they can do the most good. The project has had impacts on research and undergraduate education at both Virginia Tech and Lafayette College, an undergraduate institution. Sixteen students worked on the project, including eight undergraduate students from Lafayette College, an undergraduate institution, and two undergraduates from Virginia Tech. Out of the sixteen students, six are women, and one is African American. Of the eight Lafayette undergraduates, six are currently enrolled in or have applied to graduate programs.
