9315497 Bashein This is a planning project to develop methods to improve the prediction of the time required to perform elective surgical operations. The goal is to change the present system which is based on outright guesses or historical averages of times to perform similar procedures. Hypotheses to be tested are: that a predictive model based on historical data and the surgeon's time estimate will predict more accurately than either of the factors alone; even with little historical data or surgeon experience for a particular operation it will be possible to improve the surgeon's time estimate; and, a useful measure of the level of precision associated with a predicted operating time can also be made from the surgeon's estimate of the variability of his/her time estimate and the available historical data. This planning project is to delineate the longer-term goals to develop an improved method for scheduling elective operations and to evaluate the method in actual practice, preferably at more than one institution. ***
