The research objective of this award is to investigate the effect of after-design activities on the safety of products and to incorporate them with probabilistic product design. Products are not only made safe by good design, but through an array of risk-reduction measures during their lifecycle. Risk-reduction measures include tests of components or prototypes, health monitoring, such as engine lights that alert the user about impending problems, inspection and maintenance (THIM) processes. Current design practices for minimum risk or high reliability only account for uncertainty information available at the design stage without considering future reductions through THIM processes hence falling short of achieving optimal solutions in terms of cost and safety. The research effort will address modeling the future uncertainty reduction associated with THIM in the present design process, as well as the simultaneous probabilistic design of both products and THIM processes for reducing lifetime costs for a given desired level of safety, or alternatively, maximizing the level of safety for a given amount of lifetime costs.
If successful, this technology will be a breakthrough to reinforce the competence of the American manufacturing/design industry. The integrated THIM design will completely transform the conventional design concept to design for lifetime with uncertainty. Successful development of a lifecycle probabilistic design framework will also elevate the designer's approach to the increasingly available THIM processes from their current state of heuristic and qualitative methods, to the same level of single-stage probabilistic design, which would result in improved product reliability and efficient cost allocations. International collaboration will be enhanced by working with a Ph.D. student from an international joint Ph.D. program in France. An undergraduate student from an underrepresented group will also particiapte in the research. Technology transfer will be ensured through offering a course on uncertainty modeling and design; organizing an internet conference on probabilistic design and a workshop on probabilistic modeling and design for lifecycle; presentation at professional conferences; and journal articles.
