The objective of this collaborative research study is to improve the reliability of social vulnerability indicators by reducing uncertainties in input data and methods, and validating output metrics. Social vulnerability has been receiving increasing attention by disaster planners at local, state, and federal levels as they seek to reduce adverse impacts of natural hazards. Yet far too little is currently understood about the robustness of the leading vulnerability indicators, both in terms of the approaches used to build them and their ability to adequately represent real world conditions. There is a critical need for methodological advancements to improve the precision and accuracy of social vulnerability indicators. Without such advancements, the use of social vulnerability indicators in disaster mitigation, preparedness, and recovery could mislead decision-making. Based on a study area of the Southeast U.S., the project will develop novel regionalization routines and apply global sensitivity analysis and multiple regression to census data inputs and output vulnerability indicators. The research is expected to generate new understanding of the critical inputs and decision points in social vulnerability modeling, the level of agreement of resultant indicators with observed disaster outcomes, and the influence of uncertainty in social vulnerability modeling. By narrowing the existing gap between vulnerability models and real-world practice, improved social vulnerability indicators will allow for better disaster planning and interventions that account for the most vulnerable populations.
The project has great potential to transform dominant approaches for the measurement of social vulnerability to hazards. The finalized methodology will be made widely accessible to both researchers and the public through an internet-GIS application that generates user-customizable vulnerability indices. The improved vulnerability metrics will also be shared with state and federal disaster planners through existing relationships with the research team. The study contributes to training the next generation of hazards researchers through the direct involvement of graduate and undergraduate students, including those from groups historically underrepresented in graduate research and education. The project findings will be integrated into the classroom through the development of learning modules for existing courses that explore urban geography and interactions between hazards and society.
