The objective of this project is to use damage data generated from the path of Hurricane Gilbert to evaluate the accuracy of a recently developed model of building damage and occupant safety. The study will be limited to buildings that have received detailed attention from professional engineers and architects and that are more than two stories high. The locations of interest in this study are Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Texas Gulf Coast. In each country, samples of buildings subjected to known windspeeds will be defined. Other forces present (e.g., water) will also be noted. Details concerning building codes, dates of construction, etc., will be obtained. Buildings will be classified according to size and construction materials (e.g., reinforced- concrete two stories high). Damage to elements of the building system (e.g., roof, exterior wall, frame, foundation, etc.) will be collected in a format consistent with the theoretical model. Damage will be documented on videotape as well as with conventional still photographs. Any casualty statistics associated with each building will be noted and categorized. Data needed for input into the existing model will be determined. The analysis will produce at least the following results: (1) A listing of building damage as a function of hurricane magnitude for all buildings, (2) A summary of building damage as a function of hurricane magnitude and building type, (3) A comparison of damage prediction using the model with observed damage sustained by buildings, (4) An indication of future areas of development for the model, and (5) Extension of the results to other hazards such as earthquake damage-death predictions.
