The Cold Pool is a band of cold bottom water over the middle and outer shelf that extends the length of the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) throughout the spring and summer. The Cold Pool is remnant winter water surrounded by water that is up to 10 C warmer. The processes that govern both the seasonal evolution and inter-annual variations in the Cold Pool have significant ecosystem-wide implications. A study of the Cold Pool is timely given growing concerns about the impact of global climate change on the MAB ecosystem, especially fisheries. The remnant winter water of the Cold Pool is capped in spring by the developing seasonal thermocline. The Cold Pool warms gradually over the spring and summer and is later destroyed in the fall by storms and surface cooling. Preliminary analyses indicate that the gradual warming of the Cold Pool varies spatially and temperature, size, and duration vary on inter-annual and decadal time scales. However, it is unclear what processes contribute to the seasonal warming and inter-annual variability. Historical physical data (1860s - present) and an extensive set of moored observations will be utilized to develop the first comprehensive climatology of the Cold Pool. This climatology, along with a 33 year numerical model hindcast and historical nutrient data will serve as tools to address questions regarding the processes driving warming, the characteristics of the variability, and the connections between physical variations and nutrient concentrations in the Cold Pool.
Intellectual Merit: This project will provide the first comprehensive description of the seasonal evolution of the Cold Pool, including the processes contributing to the gradual summer warming. This will also add to our understanding of how vertical mixing and shelf-slope exchange modify water properties over the continental shelf. This project will also provide the first characterization of inter-annual to decadal variations in the temperature, spatial structure, and duration of the Cold Pool and the processes that contribute to those variations.
Broader Impacts: There is growing evidence that climate changes impact the MAB ecosystem, including the stocks and spatial distribution of commercially important fish and benthic invertebrates. The Cold Pool plays a critical role in the structure of the MAB ecosystem. Therefore a clear understanding of how the Cold Pool responds to climate change is an important element in understanding the broader impacts on the MAB ecosystem. The physical analysis and data generated by the project will contribute to fisheries research and management. Results will be shared with scientists at the National Marine Fisheries Service with the goal of linking inter-annual to decadal variations in fish stocks and distributions to changes in the Cold Pool. The datasets resulting from this study will also be shared with the broad scientific community.
