This Nanoscale Exploratory Research award will examine the use of scenario analysis for upstream identification of risks and opportunities from nanotechnology. The high degree of uncertainty that nanotechnology poses during its lifecycle, necessitates frameworks for upstream identification of both the social and environmental impacts of nanotechnology, as well as the opportunities it poses, so that regulation does not stymie technological development. This project uses a scenario analysis methodology wherein social scientists and technical scientists negotiate the issues with stakeholders using moral imagination and expert elicitation to develop a risk-based approach to the development and regulation of nanotechnology. Specifically, scenario analysis is applied to: (1) Understand how societal needs may guide nanotechnology for environmental monitoring and remediation; (2) Estimate potential risks from an emerging technology; and (3) Explore models for risk and opportunity-based regulation of nanotechnology. The intellectual merits of this research include the development of a scenario analysis framework to identify and rank risks by including toxicity of nanomaterials, an integrated view of the regulatory structure, a consideration of system-level impacts, and accounting for broader social needs within technology development. The broader impacts of the project the enabling of scientifically informed trading zones to develop scenarios for identifying potential risks and also environmental benefits of nanotechnology. A Ph.D. student and an MS student specializing in environmental systems analysis will be supported for a year to work jointly with faculty advisors, as well as with an independent advisory panel of policy experts, to understand the pressing societal needs and regulatory concerns as applied to nanotechnology.
