Hurricane Katrina led to the largest urban evacuation in U.S. history, triggering a major, unplanned social experiment in the dynamics of contemporary urbanization and migration. To improve understanding of these dynamics, this project identifies a sample of evacuees from New Orleans, designs and implements a survey to collect data on their short-term migratory behavior, and uses the collected data, in conjunction with ecological data on current and prior neighborhood characteristics, to test hypotheses regarding migration networks and links between spatial and economic mobility. Results will provide new information on post-disaster migratory dynamics and assess how and to what extent these dynamics differ from existing understanding of migratory behavior in more routine times. Theoretical contributions will be particularly strong in three areas: (a) the extent to which path-dependence and social networks predict the migratory behavior of evacuees; (b) the extent to which individuals' socioeconomic status mediates this behavior; and (c) the extent to which neighborhood characteristics associated with concentrated poverty and social isolation also play a role. Scientific understanding of these dynamics will be valuable for state and local policymakers anticipating the number and types of evacuees likely to return to the affected area, as well as for federal policymakers seeking to improve emergency planning and response to hurricanes and other types of disasters, such as a devastating terrorist attack or major industrial accident.
