The overall objective of this grant is to develop and apply statistical and quantitative methods in AIDS research. With over 29,00 AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control as of January 1987, the AIDS epidemic is becoming the most urgent public health problem in the United States. There are two specific objectives for this proposal. The first is to develop quantitative methods for projecting the course of the aids epidemic from the available data on AIDS incidence, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence and knowledge of the transmission and natural history of HIV infection. The methods will be applied to obtain projections for each risk group in the United States. A subtopic will be the development of methods to evaluate the potential impact of transmission prevention programs and treatment intervention programs on numbers of future cases. The second objective is to develop statistical methods for studies of the epidemiology of AIDS. We will focus on the development of methods for estimating the distribution of the time to AIDS following infection. A number of important complexities are introduced because the date of infection is usually not know preciously, and because the infection rate changes over calendar time. The methods will be relevant to a number of important AIDS studies currently underway. We will apply the techniques to a hemophiliac cohort and the results of the calculations will be used in our work on projections of the course of the AIDS epidemic.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01CA048723-03
Application #
3192654
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (SSS (G))
Project Start
1988-04-01
Project End
1991-06-30
Budget Start
1990-04-01
Budget End
1991-06-30
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
1990
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Johns Hopkins University
Department
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
045911138
City
Baltimore
State
MD
Country
United States
Zip Code
21218
Magder, L; Brookmeyer, R (1993) Analysis of infectious disease data from partner studies with unknown source of infection. Biometrics 49:1110-6
Wang, M C; Brookmeyer, R; Jewell, N P (1993) Statistical models for prevalent cohort data. Biometrics 49:1-11
Law, C G; Brookmeyer, R (1992) Effects of mid-point imputation on the analysis of doubly censored data. Stat Med 11:1569-78
Brookmeyer, R (1991) Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Science 253:37-42
Brookmeyer, R (1990) Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease. Environ Health Perspect 87:43-9
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) Statistical modelling of the AIDS epidemic for forecasting health care needs. Biometrics 46:1151-63
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) The analysis of delays in disease reporting: methods and results for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Am J Epidemiol 132:355-65
Brookmeyer, R; Damiano, A (1989) Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. Stat Med 8:23-34
Brookmeyer, R; Goedert, J J (1989) Censoring in an epidemic with an application to hemophilia-associated AIDS. Biometrics 45:325-35
Gail, M H; Brookmeyer, R (1988) Methods for projecting course of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic. J Natl Cancer Inst 80:900-11

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