The overall objective of this grant is to continue to develop and apply statistical methods in AIDS research. With over 150,000 AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control as of October 1990, the AIDS epidemic is one of the most urgent public health problems in the United States. The focus of this research is on statistical modeling of the AIDS epidemic. There are three specific objectives of this proposal. The first is to develop statistical methods for obtaining improved estimates of current HIV prevalence .and future AIDS incidence. Methods will be investigated for combining AIDS incidence data and incubation distribution estimates with direct estimates of HIV prevalence obtained from epidemiologic surveys. The second objective is to develop a statistical framework for analyzing serial HIV prevalence surveys and to determine what information can be gleaned about the incidence of HIV infection from such data. The methods will be applied to military applicant screening data in the U.S. The third objective is to carefully study the uncertainties which may effect the back-calculation methodology and how these uncertainties are propagated into the estimates of current and past HIV prevalence, and projections of future AIDS incidence. The sources of uncertainty that will be considered include the parametric mode-1 for the infection rate, the incubation period distribution, reporting delays and errors in AIDS incidence, and the efficacy and availability of treatment. This work will entail detailed sensitivity analyses and quantification of the effects of model misspecification. We will characterize the performance of back-calculation methods In a wide range of situations.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
2R01CA048723-04A1
Application #
3192652
Study Section
AIDS and Related Research Study Section 2 (ARRB)
Project Start
1988-04-01
Project End
1994-05-31
Budget Start
1991-07-01
Budget End
1992-05-31
Support Year
4
Fiscal Year
1991
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Johns Hopkins University
Department
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
045911138
City
Baltimore
State
MD
Country
United States
Zip Code
21218
Magder, L; Brookmeyer, R (1993) Analysis of infectious disease data from partner studies with unknown source of infection. Biometrics 49:1110-6
Wang, M C; Brookmeyer, R; Jewell, N P (1993) Statistical models for prevalent cohort data. Biometrics 49:1-11
Law, C G; Brookmeyer, R (1992) Effects of mid-point imputation on the analysis of doubly censored data. Stat Med 11:1569-78
Brookmeyer, R (1991) Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Science 253:37-42
Brookmeyer, R (1990) Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease. Environ Health Perspect 87:43-9
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) Statistical modelling of the AIDS epidemic for forecasting health care needs. Biometrics 46:1151-63
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) The analysis of delays in disease reporting: methods and results for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Am J Epidemiol 132:355-65
Brookmeyer, R; Damiano, A (1989) Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. Stat Med 8:23-34
Brookmeyer, R; Goedert, J J (1989) Censoring in an epidemic with an application to hemophilia-associated AIDS. Biometrics 45:325-35
Gail, M H; Brookmeyer, R (1988) Methods for projecting course of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic. J Natl Cancer Inst 80:900-11

Showing the most recent 10 out of 11 publications