The Branch is developing a computer model which will generate condition forecasts of future tooth loss, dental status, service utilization and expenditures for individuals and families in the U.S. These forecasts will be developed in considerable sociodemographic details. Cornell University was awarded the contract to develop the model on May 15, 1990. Dr. Caldwell, a microsimulation specialist, is principal investigator. Dr. Stephen Eklund of the University of Michigan is assisting in the development of the oral disease and conditions portion of the model. Several noted dental specialists and modeling experts are consultants to the project. Development of the model and the production of initial forecasts has been underway for two years. Programming and testing of the sociodemographic and dental portions of the model are complete. Over the next year NIDR staff will be aligning the model. Microsimulation is the approach being used. Starting from a representative sample of persons and families, the NIDR micro model will forecast tooth loss, dental health conditions, and dental service use for persons identified by age, gender, race, education, income, and other putatively important explanatory variables. Policy experiments with the full model are planned both for past times and also for future times. As a framework for synthesizing research findings, the NIDR micro model will provide a vehicle for carrying out experiments in which the latest dental research can be applied consistently and systematically to key dental policy issues.
