A computer model which will generate condition forecasts of future tooth loss, dental status, service utilization and expenditures for individuals and families in the U.S. was developed under a contract with Cornell University. The forecasts will be developed in considerable sociodemographic detail. Several noted dental specialists and modeling experts were also consultants to the project. Microsimulation is the approach being used. The development of the model and the production of initial forecasts has been completed. Tests of the full model are being conducted by EODPP staff. The model has been adapted to NIH computer systems and resides on a RISC where new SAS software to analyze the output is being developed. Starting from a representative sample of persons and families, the NIDR micro model will forecast tooth loss, dental health conditions, and dental service use for persons identified by age, gender, race, education, income, and other putatively important explanatory variables. Policy explanatory variables. Policy experiments with the full model are planned both for past times and also for future times. As a framework for synthesizing research findings, the NIDR micro model will provide a vehicle for carrying out experiments in which the latest dental research can be applied consistently and systemically to key dental policy issues.
