9706488 Sornette This research involves the application of the fundamentals of complexity to the nature and organization in space and time of large earthquakes, and their relation with precursory phenomena. The work will proceed in three steps: 1) the study of the rupture process in the heterogeneous crust and the classification of the different regimes as a function of the degree of disorder; 2) the repetition of large earthquakes and their statistical organization; and 3) the possibility for large earthquakes to exhibit seismic (and other) precursors possibly associated to collective phenomena. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. ***
